BPMA Tech Talk – June 2025

How Trade Tariffs might affect Promotional Technology going forward

International trade has hardly ever been more volatile than right now with the effects of war, global tariffs, economic uncertainty and shifts in consumer demand making life tricky for both the retail and marketing B2B sectors. Consumer electronics including promotional accessories are not immune from this and today we look at a few factors that could affect where prices, availability and innovation go over the next year or so.

Higher Prices for Consumers?

Tariffs on imported components or finished tech products (e.g., smartphones, laptops, headphones, speakers, power banks, etc ) generally raise overall total landed costs such production or import costs, often are passed on to consumers / businesses …up the supply chain in our industry through suppliers and then distributors / end users. This could result in increased retail prices for electronics which can dampen consumer demand impacting economic performance / growth in some countries and hence this affects volumes being ordered and ultimately prices based on volume can rise. Often also seen is reduced discounting during sales seasons like Christmas, Black Friday or back-to-school events as demand is unstable and with rising costs retailers cut back on price driven activity.

Supply Chain Disruptions

Tariffs can cause companies to shift manufacturing to avoid affected regions (e.g., moving from China to Vietnam, India, or Mexico), which may lead to temporary shortages as companies restructure supply chains – this is a trend happening now in the electronics sector as tensions run high between China and the USA this could well become a reality.

Apple has been reported to be pushing a lot of its production to India and Vietnam to avoid punishing extra import tarrifs extra costs to its iPhone range. Rushed bulk shipping to avoid the tariffs can also affect global transport costs as capacity suddenly becomes limited as tech giants buy up huge amounts of air and sea freight capacity – reducing overall capacity and ultimately driving costs up for the rest of the market. Delayed product launches or availability, especially for new devices / technology such as the latest smartphones, computers or VR headsets can be affected.

Reduced Product Variety

Smaller or niche tech brands may cut back on R&D to save costs and focus more on variations / colour – design of existing items than investment in NEW technology / products. As an extreme some factories or companies even pull out of certain geographic markets (e.g., Middle East. U.S. or EU) due to higher import costs which reduces volume and pushes up costs affecting as above. Some factories in China are turning to their domestic market rather than the traditional export focussed model again reducing choice in the market.

Acceleration of “Friendshoring” or Nearshoring

To avoid tariffs, companies may move production to politically aligned countries. This could increase production in places like Eastern Europe, India, Mexico, and Southeast Asia. Long-term, this may stabilise prices but will take time to transition fully and possibly cause blips or delays with orders / lead times.

Pressure on Innovation and Margins

Companies / suppliers / factories may be forced to cut back on innovation to preserve profit margins and at worst use lower-quality components to keep prices competitive. This therefore enforces the need for our market to use recognised sources of supply for electronics and not “chase margin” with unknown factories and risk damage to their client’s reputation with poor quality supply. Some examples of this:

• U.S. China tariffs during the Trump and Biden administrations increased costs on key components like semiconductors and PCBs, which affected U.S. tech companies and has knock on effects for such sectors when planning their marketing spend which directly affects our market.

• In 2025–2026, potential trade tensions (e.g., U.S. with China or EU with China over EV and tech dominance) could expand these effects, particularly for AI hardware, 5G equipment and consumer electronics.

Bottom Line

If trade tariffs escalate, fluctuate or expand in 2025/2026 we all need to be more careful with what we promise and be prepared to accept the consequences for the promotional marketing industry – this will mean being more agile, creative thinking with marketing  / creating messages / products that show that clients marketing campaigns can be delivered in an ever changing economic climate. To summarise our market and consumers / business might be forced to expect higher prices, less product availability and slower innovation in the short term. In the long term, companies will adapt, but transitions will bring volatility to pricing and availability – it could be a rocky road ahead!

For help or advice about how promo tech can be used in your next campaign, get in touch with the team @ DTI - contact  01844 261601 or sales@desktopideas.com.